影响出行链构成的多因素分析

Analysis of Multi-factors Influencing Trip Chain Buildup

摘要:

出行行为分析是解释和分析当前交通复杂状态的一个重要方向，特别是从出行链的角度去解释人们的出行决策对制定交通需求管理政策非常有意义。本文以影响出行链构成的各类因素为研究对象，依据已有的理论基础和实践经验，设计了一份涵盖众多影响出行链构成的因素的调查问卷，并利用结构方程建模中的验证性因子分析方法，逐步筛选出了影响出行链各构成因素的全集，剔除了影响微弱的因素，同时量化了各构成因素对于出行链不同程度的影响，最后将模型拟合满意的结果在另一随机样本中进行了复核效度检验，从而证明了模型及其结果的可推广性。本文就影响出行链构成的因素的变化进行了深入讨论，为当前城市交通管理的实践提供了参考。

Abstract:

travel behavior has evolved to be one of the most important aspects to analyze the travel situation in urban area since then because managers can know of the activities arrangement and their sequence from such analysis. As a result those demand policies figured out by authorities can better aim at different group people. This paper combined the extant literature and experiences to design a questionnaire to capture as many factors influencing trip chain, a common concept describing travel arrangement, as possible in order to completely understand what kinds of factors should be weighted in the policies. Then structure equation modeling technique is applied to finish the confirmatory factor analysis by which those factors with significant impact are identified to consist of the factor set. Meantime the influence coefficients among the factors are computed based on the data samples. and a cross validity test is run in another sample to prove the generality of the result. Finally the contribution and further research is shown in the conclusion section of this paper.