带专家偏好的非常规突发事件应急预案序贯决策研究

Contingency Plans of Unconventional Emergency Based on Sequential Decision-making with Experts Preference

摘要:

针对非常规突发事件具有突发性和不可预测性等特点，在借助救灾专家判断偏好的基础上，应急决策者需要根据阶段性的处理结果和突发事件的演化趋势动态地调整救援方案。首先构建数学模型，详细分析动态博弈框架下应急管理中应急决策者与突发事件之间的序贯博弈过程。通过有限次序贯博弈获取未来应急资源的需求信息，形成资源调度的最优方案，为应急决策人员在突发事件爆发后应急救援资源的调度提供决策支持。最后通过具体的算例分析，探讨了如何运用序贯博弈模型生成最佳调度预案的方法。

Abstract:

After analysing the suddenness,unexpectedness and other features of unconventional emergency , decision maker must dynamicly adjust the contingency plans according to the outcomes of phases and the changes of emergency and the judgement of experts’ preference. First of all, a mathematical model is established by using dynamic games. Then the process of sequential games between decision maker and emergency is analyzed in detail. The information about the future demand of resources is got through finitely sequential games in order to bring forth the optimal scheduling plans of resources and to provide support for the decision-making when an emergency bursts out. Finally , the method of how to use the model of sequential games to generate the best scheduling plans is given by a specific example.