基于灰色系统理论的沥青路面使用性能预测

Asphalt Pavement Performance Prediction Model Based on Gray System Theory

摘要:

采用灰色系统理论方法，分别对路面强度指数、路面状况指数和路面平整度指标进行了建模和预测.利用实际路面检测数据进行模型的检验和修正，并与传统的回归分析模型进行对比.结果表明，对于公路路面这种比较离散的技术状况评价指标值，采用灰色预测方法精度有较大的提高，能够满足路面使用性能预测的要求.

Abstract:

Based on the method of the gray system theory,the prediction models of pavement structure strength index,pavement conditions index and the pavement roughness are obtained respectively.The prediction models are validated and modified through the actual road test data,and compared with the traditional model of regression analysis.The results show that for predicting such discrete target value of pavement surface condition,the gray prediction method can improve the accuracy,and meet the requirements of pavement performance prediction.