浮动车数据缺失道路的速度推估模型与实现

Estimation Model and Its Realization of Routing Velocity Under Environment of Lack of Floating Car Data

摘要:

介绍了浮动车数据(FCD)的基本概念，给出了浮动车数据预处理及与地图匹配的基本流程.在对浮动车数据在路网中覆盖率分析的基础上，当路网中浮动车数据出现缺失时，利用海量的路况历史数据库，提出基于路段空间关系的道路速度多元线性回归推估模型，并推出了按周天分类的模型系数.根据实测检验结果，得到了该方法速度误差的分布概率和状态误差的分布概率，并以此分析了结合空间关系的多元线性回归模型的适用性和可靠性.最后以上海城区为例，给出了基于该方法完整的道路速度的推估与路况发布实例.

Abstract:

After an introduction to the principle of floating car data (FCD),this paper puts forward the operation flow of preprocessing on FCD,and the algorithm of map-matching as well.Based on an analysis of the percentage of coverage of FCD on the road network,large quantity of heritage database of routing status is used to estimate the routing velocity when lack of FCD on parts road segments.Multi-linear regression model is then adopted by considering the spatial correlativity among the road networks,and some model parameters are determined when time interval is classified in day and week.Besides,error of velocity probability and error of status probability are achieved based on the result from field testing,while the feasibility and reliability of the velocity estimation model is obtained as well.Finally,as a case study in Shanghai center area,the whole routing velocity in the road network is estimated and published in real time for public.