上海世博会出行方式选择意愿的建模与场景分析

Discrete Choice Model and Scenario Analysis on Trip Mode Choice Behavior for 2010 Expo Shanghai

摘要:

2010年的上海世博会的庞大客流将考验城市交通系统的应对能力，而客流的交通出行方式选择比例将直接影响上海世博会的交通运营组织方案制定以及会展期间的城市交通日常管理方案。针对世博会客流来源广泛、背景差异大的特点，设计了两阶段递进式的SP调查方法进行了大规模的世博客流出行方式选择意愿调查，多层次地分析了各种影响因素的效用；以此为基础，建立了描述本地、外地住宿、外地一日游等不同类型游客出行方式选择行为的多项Logit模型；利用这些出行方式离散选择模型，分析对比了多种交通管理措施和政策的组合场景实施效果，针对性地给出了世博交通管理的建议措施。

Abstract:

The tremendous visitors of Expo 2101 Shanghai should test the responsive ability of urban transport system in Shanghai, and the trip mode choice result of Expo visitors should impact the special operations for Expo traffic and the routine management measures for urban traffic directly. Considering the complexity of background of Expo visitors, a two-stage gradual stated preference survey method is presented for the large-scale trip mode choice survey of Expo visitors. Based on these survey data, the effects of different factors were analyzed and three kinds of multinomial logit model for the trip mode choice behavior of local visitors, out-of-town one-day-trip visitors and out-of-town lodging visitors were provided in this paper. At last, several traffic management measures and policies for Expo 2010 Shanghai were contracted in scenario analysis. Suggestions were proposed for Expo 2010 Shanghai.