基于贝叶斯分析的道路交通系统可靠性模型

Reliability Models of Road Traffic Systems Based on Bayesian Analysis

摘要:

针对灾变事件下重大公路交通基础设施所在路网运营安全管理实时决策的需要,提出了基于贝叶斯分析的道路交通系统可靠性计算模型.以系统工程理论对道路交通系统进行建模和分类,以可靠性工程理论对道路交通系统可靠性的概念进行定义,并逐级建立4类道路交通系统的可靠性计算模型.为了满足路网交通系统可靠性模型的应用需要,引入贝叶斯网络理论,提出了耦合贝叶斯网络的道路交通系统可靠性计算模型,并以算例示范了模型的应用.

关键词:交通安全; 路网运营安全管理; 道路交通系统; 可靠性; 贝叶斯网络

Abstract:

For the need a of realtime decisionmaking in safety management of road network operation, models based on Bayesian analysis (BA) for calculation of reliability of road traffic system were presented. Based on road traffic system models constructed with theories in system engineering, the concept of reliability of road traffic system was defined with reliability engineering, and reliability models of four kinds of road traffic systems were constructed respectively. To solve problems in application of the reliability models, Bayesian network (BN) was introduced to construct BNcoupled reliability models for road traffic systems. A case study was conducted to illustrate the use of the BNcoupled models.

Key words:traffic safety; safety management of road network operation; road traffic system; reliability; Bayesian network