Through the statistical meteorological conditions of Nanjing area, the temperature filed of asphalt pavement was analyzed. Based on temperature field analysis and laboratory material tests, the reasonable simulation model considering consecutively variable temperature was developed to study the effect of exterior factors (temperature and load) on rutting. The remarkable influence factors were analyzed, and then the rutting prediction model considering the climate factors was established. It is indicated that the rutting analysis close to the field condition can be simulated using the simulation method considering continuously changing temperature field; rutting usually occurs at the average daily air temperature of 20 ℃ or hgher, and the variety of daily rutting is a typical S curve. The index of rutting depth is defined and early warning method for high temperature and corresponding protective measures are also put forward.