基于遗传程序设计的供水管网爆管预测模型

Predictive Pipe Failure Models for Water Distribution System Based on Genetic Programming

摘要:

收集了中国南方某城市2004—2008年的爆管资料.通过统计分析,确定了不同管径平均管龄、抗拉强度以及故障强度,并结合供水管网模拟,确定了管段的平均绝对压力.通过以管径为分类依据的不同训练样本,利用遗传程序设计建立了故障强度与管径、平均绝对压力、平均管龄和抗拉强度之间相关关系的爆管预测模型.运用2009年统计爆管数据验证了预测模型的准确性与可行性,结果表明爆管预测模型能较好地反映实际情况.

Abstract:

The pipe failure data from 2004 to 2008 in a southern city were collected and average pipe age, tensile strength and pipe failure rate were obtained by data analysis, average pipe pressure was obtained by water distribution simulation. With the diameter classification of training samples, predictive pipe failure models which described the pipe failure rate correlations among diameters, average pipe pressure, average pipe age and tensile strength were established on the basis of the genetic programming. The feasibility and effectiveness of the models were verified by the pipe failure data from 2009. The results show that predictive pipe failure models can well describe actual conditions.