高速公路追尾机理概率分析及风险评价

Probabilistic Analysis and Risk Evaluation of Highway Rearend Collision

摘要:

根据高速公路跟驰安全临界条件,分析了高速公路追尾机理特征;利用追尾碰撞运动原理,研究了高速公路追尾碰撞4种情形,推理出其追尾风险量化指标.考虑驾驶员反应时间、制动减速度随机的影响,采用蒙特卡罗方法,计算出高速公路跟驰追尾风险值.以此为基础,利用模糊聚类方法确定了追尾风险评价等级阈值范围,为高速公路行车安全预警提供理论依据.

Abstract:

In terms of carfollowing critical condition,the characteristics of freeway rearend mechanism was analyzed.The four kinds of situation of freeway rearend collision were studied and the quantified index of rearend collision risk was inferred according to the rearend collision kinetic theory.Considering the random effect of driver’s reaction time,brake deceleration,the Monte Carlo method was used to calculate the value of rearend collision risk.The scope of threshold value was then obtained by fuzzy clustering method.The results can provide the theoretical foundation for early warning of freeway driving safety.