多智能体模拟在土地变化预测中的应用

Application of Multiagent Simulation in Land Change Prediction

摘要:

伴随着城市建设的快速发展,城市中心及周边的绿地规模正在逐年减小,城市内部绿地环境在逐步恶化.因此对城市建设用地和绿地的变化进行定量的把握,对其变化进行预测和评价是非常重要的.以日本大分市植田地区为例,建立多智能体模型(MAS),计算各智能体的变化概率,确立各智能体的分类类型,进而对对象地区的土地变化进行模拟,并验证其有效性.再以此模型为基准,对将来的城市建成区和绿地环境变化进行预测模拟,提出结合人口要素对土地变化进行模拟预测的意见和方法.

Abstract:

Based on a study of the Ueda Area of Oita in Japan,a multiagent system (MAS) was established.The change probability of each agent was calculated,and the distribution type of each agent was identified.Then, a simulation study was made of the land change of target areas and the results were verified.Based on this model,the change in future buildup area and green land was simulated and predicted.The suggestion and method to simulate land change in conjunction with population elements were proposed.