公路隧道群追尾交通事故预警模型

An Early warning Model for Rear end Accident Occurring in Highway Tunnel Group

摘要:

由于公路隧道群追尾交通事故与车辆行驶过程中的运行状态密切相关,将车辆制动距离、行驶速度、车辆类型等交通流参数作为其识别预警特征参量,结合人工免疫系统原理,构建了智能化的公路隧道群追尾交通事故预警模型,能够对车辆异常状态的发展趋势做出较为准确的判断,并给出相应事故安全级别的预警信息.最后,以西汉高速公路隧道群区段为例,运用该基于人工免疫机理的预警模型进行工程实例仿真分析,得出了不同工况下的预警事故信息,说明了预警模型的准确性和可行性,为我国高速公路隧道群区段的安全运营管理提供了重要的理论依据.

关键词:公路隧道群; 追尾交通事故预警; 人工免疫; 改进否定算法

Abstract:

Considering the close relationship between rearend accident and the vehicle’s travelling state in highway tunnel group,this paper takes braking distance,travelling speed and the type of vehicle as characteristic parameters for forewarning the rearend accidents occurring in highway tunnel group.Then,on the basis of artificial immune mechanism,an earlywarning model is proposed to identify and determine the tendency caused by vehicle’s abnormal state,and some important earlywarning information is given as the levels of accidents.Finally,Xihan highway tunnel group is studied as a simulation example to verify the accuracy and utility of the earlywarning model.It is expected that the findings from the study can provide a significant theoretical basis for the safety operation management in highway tunnel group.

Key words:highway tunnel group; earlywarning of rearend accident; artificial immune; improved negative algorithm