插电式混合动力汽车消费者拥有成本模型

Consumer Ownership Cost Model of Plug in Hybrid Vehicle

摘要:

采用并联式混合动力系统作为驱动系统布置方案，利用Advisor界定插入式混合动力汽车的结构和动力部件，建立分别拥有20和60 km不同续驶里程的插电式混合动力模型，基于购置成本和使用成本构建两种情况的消费者拥有成本模型并与相同等级内燃机汽车和传统混合动力汽车比较，分析15年名义寿命周期内基本、政府补贴和油价上涨三种情景插电式混合动力的市场竞争力，结果表明，基本情景下插电式混合动力无竞争力，政府补贴情景下在使用4~5年时体现竞争力，油价以每年10%的速度上涨的情景下可在使用7~8年后显示竞争力.

Abstract:

Advisor was adopted to define structures and power trains of parallel plug in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and two PHEV models with different battery electric ranges of 20 km and 60 km were established. The consumer total ownership cost models were established on the basis of the purchase and use cost and compared with conventional vehicles (CVs) and conventional hybrid vehicles. Three scenarios were given about the basic, government subsidies and high oil price and an analysis was made of the PHEVs’ market competitiveness during 15 years nominal lifecycle. The results show that in basic scenario, PHEVs do not have competitiveness; with government subsidies, PHEVs will be competitive after 4~5 years’ running; in high oil price scenario with 10% annual growth rate, PHEVs will be competitive after 7~8 years.