山岭隧道新奥法施工过程动态风险评估

Dynamic Risk Assessment of Mountain Tunnel during NATM Construction

摘要:

将风险分析与施工量测体系相结合，对致险因子进行识别，确定风险评价指标体系；通过层次分析法（AHP）确定各个量测项目的权重，进而引入模糊数学理论，建立合理的隶属度函数，对具体的量测数据进行模糊综合评判；结合权重分析和赋分体系得到综合风险指数，从而建立山岭隧道新奥法施工过程动态风险评估模型。该模型可以将量测数据量化为单一的动态风险指数，并随着隧道开挖和量测的进行而对施工风险进行动态评估。该动态风险评估体系在保阜高速隧道工程中得到了应用，直观、及时地反应了隧道施工过程中的风险，应用结果表明该方法具有合理性和实用性，值得在类似工程中推广和应用。

关键词:山岭隧道;新奥法施工;事故树分析;层次分析;动态风险评估

Abstract:

Combining the risk analysis and monitoring measurement system, we identify the factors of risks and determine the risk evaluation index system, the amount of items in various weights was conformed by analytic hierarchy process, then, we introduced the fuzzy theory, the measurement of specific data for fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was completed by creating reasonable membership function, and the comprehensive risk index was obtained through the weights analysis and risk endowing system, thus, we established a dynamic risk assessment model for NATM construction in mountain tunnel. The model can quantify the measured data as a single dynamic risk index, and evaluate the risk of construction dynamically. The dynamic risk assessment system has been applied in Bao Fu highway tunnel, which can reflect the risk of tunnel construction process visually and timely. Analytical results show that the method is reasonable and practical, and is worthy of to be promoted and applied in similar projects.

Key words:mountain tunnel; NATM; fuzzy theory; analytic hierarchy process; dynamic risk assessment.