交通网络需求脆弱性分析及应用

Demand Vulnerability Analysis of Transportation Network and Its Application

摘要:

异常事件的发生往往引起交通网络供给能力的降低，若忽略交通需求的变化，会对网络所受到影响的估计产生一定偏差.提出需求脆弱性概念，同时考虑异常事件下供给与需求的变化，以基于随机效用理论的需求组合模型和可达性指标作为脆弱性指标的基础，定量评估网络承受异常事件的能力.通过示例路网介绍了需求脆弱性指标的计算，并比较了几种方案对于降低需求脆弱性的效果，说明了需求脆弱性分析在交通规划与管理中的应用.

Abstract:

Transportation network would be degraded under incident circumstance. If the change of demand side of the transportation system was not considered, the consequence of the incident would be overestimated. The demand vulnerability was proposed to evaluate the network’s ability to resist incidents by considering both the supply and the demand side of the system. A combined travel demand model and an accessibility measure based on the random utility theory were applied as the basis of the demand vulnerability index. A trial network presented the calculation of the index and its application for comparison of management schemes. The demand vulnerability analysis could be helpful for the planners and managers to take measures to enhance the network’s ability against incidents.