分期BOT项目期权定价特许权期的决策模型与分析

Decision making Model and Analyses on Concession Term for BOT Projects by Stages

摘要:

假设项目公司将BOT（建设 经营 移交）项目分期实施且同时移交，基于实物期权理论建立BOT项目分期实施的期权博弈模型和决策定价方法.在保证政府收益和项目建设质量不受损失的前提下，对如何科学地确定特许权期作了深入详尽的论证和分析，最后通过工程实例的计算和实证分析验证该模型的可行性和有效性.

Abstract:

Assuming that the build operate transfer(BOT) projects be constructed by stages but transferred in the same time, a new decision making approach and model on concession term is presented based on real option. In order to preserve the profit of the government and construction quality of project, the approach to scientifically choose the concession term for BOT projects is analyzed in details. Finally, numerical experiment for practical engineer project further illustrates the proposed model is feasible and efficient.