考虑空间相关性的信控交叉口安全分析

Risk Factor Analysis for Signalized Intersections Along Corridors with a Consideration of Spatial Correlation

摘要:

利用广义估计方程(generalized estimating equation, GEE)考虑交叉口的空间相关性，分析交叉口所处位置、几何设计、信号控制、运行状况等因素对于安全的影响.结果表明，以自回归型(autoregressive)为关联矩阵的GEE模型具有最优的拟合效果；交叉口间距越小、转向车道比例越大、相位数越多、日均流量越大，事故产生的风险越大；十字交叉口、低交通密度、位于高架下的交叉口的事故发生几率较高.

关键词:信控交叉口; 安全分析; 空间相关性; 广义估计方程; 安全影响因素

Abstract:

Generalized estimating equation (GEE) was applied to account for the correlation among intersections from corridors. Risk factors including intersection location, geometric design, signal control, and operation condition were identified. The results show that GEE with the autoregressive correlation structure is the most effective way to deal with the spatially correlated data. It confirms that intersections in close proximity, with greater ratio of turning lanes, more number of phrases, and more ADT tend to have higher crash frequencies; 4 legged intersections and intersections under elevated expressways are associated with more crashes.

Key words:signalized intersections; safety analysis; spatial correlation; generalized estimation equation; risk factors