群体诱导信息下驾驶员响应行为的辨识与建模

Calibrating and Modeling of Drivers’ Response to Variable Message Signs Based on Travel Scenario Reconstruction

摘要:

提出一种利用实测宏观交通数据定量分析群体诱导信息下驾驶员路径选择行为的新方法.利用上海市快速路监控中心和路由控制示范工程数据库的交通数据，重构可变信息标志（variable message sign, VMS）信息下的交通出行场景，分析VMS信息作用下驾驶员路径选择行为，建立了一个集计的群体诱导信息响应行为Probit模型.结果表明：驾驶员在VMS信息影响下的路径选择行为除了和信息内容有关外，还与时段、下匝道交通状态、拥挤可视性、有无协调分流等因素有关，可为主动式智能交通诱导系统的构建和信息发布策略的制定提供依据.

Abstract:

A new method is proposed to calibrate drivers’ en route diversion behavior. Traffic data from loop detectors and vehicle license plate readers are used to reconstruct travel scenario. An analysis is made of the impact of variable message sign (VMS) messages on the drivers’ en route diversion behavior and a Probit model is therefore, established. Moreover, time factors, off ramp conditions, and visibility of downstream congestion significantly influence en route diversion behavior. The proposed model provides a reference for establishing related traffic models for active traffic routing and setting optimal strategies of information promulgation.