拥挤度对公共交通方式选择意愿的影响

Infuence of In vehicle Congestion Degree on Choice of Public Transit Mode

摘要:

针对公共交通方式出行特点设计了RP(revealed preference)与SP(stated preference)调查结合的方法，并根据正交试验设计的原理对SP调查中的变量和水平进行组合设计；提出根据立席密度对拥挤程度进行描述的方法，并对拥挤程度进行分级.以此为基础，建立包含时间、费用和拥挤度的离散选择模型，通过对拥挤度的弹性分析研究其对出行者交通方式选择意愿的影响.实例证明拥挤度对出行者交通方式选择产生巨大影响，是在构建常规公交和轨道交通方式的效用函数和方式竞争选择模型时不可缺少的因素.

Abstract:

This research paper is directed toward obtaining a better understanding of in vehicle congestion influence on choice of public transit mode. Considering the complexity of survey respondents, a revealed preference survey and stated preference survey combined survey method is provided. According to orthogonal test principle, composite design is carried out for variables and levels in SP survey. Based on a large scale survey for tourists in all urban rail transit lines of Shanghai, this paper advances the method to describe and classify congestion degree according to density of standing passengers, so as to establish the discrete choice model including time, cost and congestion, and analyze congestion influence on travellers’ desire for choice of traffic mode through elasticity analysis of congestion. The model calibration result shows that travellers are more sensitive to in vehicle time, and change of congestion will obviously influence travellers’ choice of travel mode. The analysis of elasticity show that travellers choosing conventional public transit are very sensitive to congestion degree, and after congestion decreases, travellers’ sensitivity to travel time and travel cost also decreases; and change of rapid transit service level will influence more on demand for conventional public transit.