基于反事实场景技术的农村公路项目影响评价研究

Evaluating the Impact of Rural Road Projects Based on Counterfactual Scene Approach

摘要:

投资农村公路建设的基本原理是农村公路项目建设改善了农村地区的可达性，从而使得农民可以更效率地获得各种机会。然而，由于受到其它因素影响，准确评价农村公路项目影响一直难以进行。本文基于反事实场景技术，通过设置农村公路项目的处理组与对照组，构建了基于倍差法和计量经济模型框架的农村公路项目影响评估模型。在此基础上，使用来自福建省68个村庄816个农户的大样本随机抽样调查得到的面板数据，实证了农村公路项目对提高农民收入的影响。结果表明，与传统的“前后对比”方法相比，基于反事实场景技术的农村公路项目影响评价方法能更加客观地评估由农村公路项目所产生的效益。

Abstract:

The basic rationale for public investment in rural road projects is that households can achieve better transport access which supplies the opportunities to increase the welfare efficiently. This paper examines the impacts of rural road projects on rural household’s income using a quasi-experimental household-level panel data from Fujian Province, China, surveying treatment and control villages before and after project implementation. Rural road projects are found to improve the income of households in treatment villages, political life and the relationship with relatives and friends. However, the traditional before and after approach may overestimate income improve effect, and it has been proved to unsuitable to evaluate the impact of rural road projects on household income.