纯电动出租车经济效益与服务定价分析模型

Economy Benefit and Business Operating Service Pricing Model of Electric Taxi

摘要:

在上海市现有传统出租车市场的基础上建立电动出租车的运营环境，基于充电与换电模式、充电时间与换电频率、单日运营时间构建电动出租车6种运营模式，利用电动汽车行驶质量与能耗回归模型，界定车辆动力电池容量.进而构建基于购置成本、使用成本、驾驶员工资、营业收入的全生命周期经济效益评价模型，基于油价上涨、电价上涨、电池成本下降3种不同情景，建立纯电动出租车的服务定价模型.计算结果表明：换电模式比充电模式盈利能力强；燃油价格年均上涨5%以上的情景下，电动出租车可以在5年与燃油出租车实现同等盈利；电价上涨10%，电动出租车服务价格则需上涨1%；电池成本若能够显著降低50%，电动出租车的服务价格将比燃油出租车低7%.

Abstract:

Electric taxi was tested on the basis of the existing fuel oil taxi business model in Shanghai. The 6 kinds of operation model were structured based on battery charging and leasing model, charging time and swapping frequencies, and daily operation time. The energy consumption regression model based on the electric taxi driving quality was used to define vehicle power battery capacity of 6 different models. The whole lifecycle evaluation model of economy benefit was made with a consideration of purchase cost, usage cost, driver salary, and business revenue. Three scenarios were defined including gasoline price increasing, electric power increasing, and battery cost decreasing. The business operation service pricing model of electric taxi was made based on previous 6 models and three scenarios. The results show that the profitability of battery swapping model is higher than that of the charging model. With annually increasing of 5% of the gasoline price, the electric taxi will get the same profit with fuel oil taxi in 5 years. With annually increasing of 10% of the electric power price, the business operation service price of electric taxi will rise by 1%. When battery cost decreases by 50%, the business operation service price of electric taxi will be 7% lower than the fuel oil taxi.