基于DPSIR模型评价长株潭地区水资源的脆弱性

A DPSIR Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Water Resources System in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Areas

摘要:

水资源系统的脆弱性是当今世界共同面临的难题，本文以长株潭城市群水资源系统为例，采用DPSIR（驱动力-压力-状态-影响-反应）模型，在全面识别水循环子系统、社会经济子系统和生态环境子系统脆弱性因子的基础上，结合统计资料和专家评价，详细阐述了脆弱性评价模型的建立过程，采用层次分析法和熵权法相结合的组合权重法得到水资源系统各个脆弱性因子的权重，并由此对水资源系统的脆弱性进行评价。研究结果表明：长株潭城市群整体水资源系统脆弱性较大，存在较多的不安全因素，因此该地区水资源系统的脆弱性评价对于长株潭城市群的水资源系统可持续发展具有指导意义。

Abstract:

Water resources vulnerability is a common problem that every country in the world encounters nowadays. DPSIR (Driving forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) model is used to do the water resources system vulnerability assessment of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan areas in this paper. Meanwhile, the establishment of vulnerability assessment model and evaluation process are described in detail based on the comprehensive identification of the vulnerability factors of the water cycle sub-system, the social-economic subsystem and the environment sub-system, combing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method with entropy method, weights of water resources vulnerability factors are obtained, as well as a comprehensive evaluation on the water resources system vulnerability. The conclusion shows that the vulnerability of water resources system in Chang-Zhu-Tan is serious with several insecurity factors, so the vulnerability assessment can provide a technical guidance for the sustainable development of the water resources system in Chang-Zhu-Tan areas.