基于上下车人数的公交客流起迄点估计方法

Estimating Transit Passenger Origin Destination Flows Using Boarding and Alighting Counts

摘要:

自动计数器 (automatic passenger counter APC)系统可自动采集大量乘客上下车数据。APC数据以聚集的方式表示公交乘客起迄点 (origin destination OD)交通流，因此，可用于估计公交OD交通流。据此，提出基于APC数据统计分布的公交乘客起迄点交通流估计模型，并开发高计算效率的 HEM (heuristic expectation maximization)算法。在模型评价比较中，考虑了APC样本量、APC测量误差和OD调查样本量对OD估计精度的影响。结果表明，HEM法比传统方法更有效地利用APC数据，OD估计精度更高。另外，HEM法在计算效率和估计精度两方面都优于近年来新提出的基于仿真的OD估计方法。

Abstract:

A large amount of passenger boarding and alighting counts at stops can be collected by Automatic Passenger Counter (APC) systems. APC data describe passenger Origin Destination (OD) flows at the aggregate level and, therefore, can be used to estimate passenger OD flows. In view of this, an OD flow estimation formulation based on the distribution of the APC data is proposed and a computationally efficient Heuristic Expectation Maximization (HEM) algorithm to solve the proposed formulation is developed. The effects of the quantity of the APC data, APC measurement errors and OD survey sample size are considered in the methodology evaluation and comparison. It is revealed that the HEM algorithm takes better advantage of the APC data than traditional methods and that it outperforms a simulation based approach that was recently proposed in the literature in terms of both estimation accuracy and computational efficiency.