托运人货运服务选择行为模型研究述评

Review of Behavioral Model for Shippers’ Freight Transport Choice

摘要:

行为模型是货运需求分析的重要方法之一，能够很好地描述托运人的货运服务选择行为特征，预测不同货运服务的市场需求，因而在货运设施和政策措施的预期效果评估方面得到了广泛应用。在对2000年以后46篇文献研究的基础上，根据货运非集计行为模型的研究主题对其进行归类整理，分析货运非集计行为模型的理论基础、建模思路和数据来源，并从货运服务选择影响因素识别、货运服务潜在市场份额预测、货运服务质量属性价值估算等三个方面对货运非集计行为模型的研究方法和结论进行述评。最后，讨论了既有研究存在的不足和未来进一步研究的方向。

Abstract:

As one important method of freight demand analysis, behavioral models allows researchers to describe the characteristics of shipper’s freight service choice behavior and forecast the market demand of different freight service, so they are widely applied to evaluate the expected effect of freight transportation infrastructures and policy actions. After reviewing 46 documents since 2000, this paper sorts out them based on the research theme of disaggregate behavioral freight model and analyzes their theory basis, modeling process and data sources. Then it elaborates the methods and results of these literatures from the perspective of identifying the factors influencing shipper’s choice behavior, forecasting the potential market share and estimating the quality attributes value of freight service. Finally, it discusses the shortcomings of exist literatures and puts forward some issues to be further studied.