上海市轨道交通客流量的公交导向开发影响因素分析

Transit oriented Development Correlates of Rail Transit Ridership in Shanghai Municipality

摘要:

采用了上海市域范围内轨道交通站点层面的数据，运用多元回归方法，检验并确定了影响上海市轨道交通客流量的重要的公交导向开发（TOD）因素.结果表明站点影响区域内的公交车服务次数、公交车平均发车间隔、步行至最近公交站点的时间、轨道交通站点的出入口数量以及站点周围是否有停车场等五个变量对轨道交通的客流量具有显著影响.尤其是，公交车服务次数和平均发车间隔这一对看似矛盾的因素恰好表明了接驳型公交服务的增加对轨道交通客流提高的重要性.此外，提出了具体的政策建议，以期用来指导城市和交通开发的实践活动.

Abstract:

This study, with the city wide station level data limited to be used in prior studies, examines and identifies the transit oriented development(TOD) factors that significantly influence the weekday transit ridership in metropolis of Shanghai by using multivariate regressions. The results show that five variables including the number of daily bus services, average bus headway in station catchment area, walking time to the nearest bus stop, the number of exits of transit stations and parking lot around transit stations, are important in contributing to higher rail transit ridership for Shanghai. In particular, the seemingly contradictory factors of bus service and average headway demonstrate the importance of raising shuttle bus services to the increase of rail transit ridership. Furthermore, the detailed policy implications corresponding with the significant factors are proposed to guide the practice in the urban and transport development.