公共自行车出行质量实证研究

Travel Quality by Public Bicycles: An Empirical Study

摘要:

以上海闵行区公共自行车系统为例，调查获得人们在公共自行车系统实施之后出行方式的转换，采用离散选择模型解释这种转换下的决策机制.发现公共自行车特征、出行时耗以及服务点可达性是出行方式转换的重要影响要素.应用模型发现公共自行车使用者的出行质量显著提升，而出行总质量提升最多的集中于较为功利性的出行目的.转换自公交方式的出行获得质量提升最多，转换自小汽车的出行质量提升最少.预估并比较服务站点密度增加和公共电动自行车两种服务方式的竞争力发现，后者对出行质量提升的效果明显高于前者.

Abstract:

A case study was made of the public bicycle system of Minhang District, Shanghai, by carring out a questionnaire survey to record the travel mode shift behavior after the introduction of the system. A discrete choice model was employed to explain the decision mechanism underlying the modal shift. It is found that the characteristics of public bicycle, travel time and the accessibility of the bicycle service stations are important factors for decision making. The application of the model reveals travel quality improvement, while the most aggregate quality improvement occurs for relatively utilitarian travel purposes. The modal shift from public transits improve travel quality the most, while the modal shift from private cars improves the least. It is estimated that the travel quality by electric bikes improves more than that by setting up denser service stations.