基于双参数的城际旅客出行方式动态仿真方法

Dynamic Simulation Method for Travelling Mode Choice Behavior of Intercity Passengers Based on Two Parameters

摘要:

基于仿真思想，利用数学模型描述交通方式特性和旅客自身特性对城际旅客出行方式选择行为的动态交互影响.综合应用生产法与收入法，根据旅客有无小轿车的属性，引入比例系数，改进了出行时间价值的计算模型；在研究等待时间参数和不能精确定量描述元素参数的分布表达函数的基础上，设计了城际旅客出行方式选择行为仿真方法；通过分析沪杭城际运输通道的调查数据，对旅客的出行方式选择行为进行了仿真，并对相关影响因素进行了灵敏度分析，论证了仿真方法的正确性和有效性.

Abstract:

Based on simulation methods, this paper analyzed the influence of traffic mode characteristics and the passenger’s own characteristics on the travelling mode choice behavior of intercity passengers with a mathematical model. By comprehensive application of the production and income methods and introduction of the proportional coefficient, the calculation model of travelling time value was improved based on the fact if the passenger has his/her own cars. Based on the expression function of the distribution parameters of waiting time and the elements which cannot be accurately quantified, a simulation method for travelling mode choice behavior was systematically designed for intercity passengers. In addition, this dynamic simulation approach was illustrated with the Shanghai Hangzhou intercity transport corridors in China. The sensitivity analysis of four parameters show that the proposed simulation approach is accurate and valid.