风险链视角下建设项目进度风险评估

Novel Method for Schedule Risks Assessment in Construction Projects from Perspective of Risk Chain

摘要:

归纳出风险链的概念，并提出以风险链为评估对象的进度风险评估方法：利用去主观化的方法，分析由专家小组给出的进度风险因素间关联关系的评价信息，确定项目进度风险因素间的关联关系；根据关联关系建立风险关联网络，并阐述将风险关联网络分割为独立风险链的方法；将项目进度计划、风险链属性等信息纳入到蒙特卡洛仿真过程进行模拟，并提出以仿真输出结果为计算依据的风险链评估公式.在算例中，阐述并分析该方法的可行性和有效性.

Abstract:

The concept of risk chain is put forward, and a novel approach was proposed for assessing schedule risks. First, in order to find out the interrelationships among risks, the evaluation information provided by a panel of experts was analyzed by an objectifying process; secondly, a risk interaction network was established based on the identified interrelationships, and the method to divide a risk interaction network into some unattached risk chains was explained; thirdly, a formula was provided to assess the various risk chains, according to obtained parameters from a simulation process taking the information of project schedule and properties of risk chains into consideration. Finally, a numerical example was analyzed to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach.