生产率提高和产业结构变化对住房价格的影响

Influence of Productivity Growth and Industrial Structure Changes on Housing Prices

摘要:

通过构建劳动力和住房市场均衡模型，探究了生产率提高和产业结构变化对住房市场和劳动力市场均衡状态的影响，并利用我国35个大中城市2002—2012年的数据建立动态面板模型进行了实证分析.结果表明，生产率提高会引起房价上涨，且第三产业的效应强于第二产业；产业结构优化升级是房价上涨的动力.住房价格上涨是生产率提高和产业结构优化的必然结果，中央政府建立“稳定房价工作责任制”的调控措施不符合市场的发展规律.政府应当重点引导产业和劳动力向中小城镇流动，促进中小城镇与大城市产业和劳动力市场的均衡发展，建设以市场自我稳定为目标的长效机制.

Abstract:

The labor market and housing market equilibrium models were established, and the empirical studies were made of the effect of productivity growth and industrial structure on the housing prices on the basis of the annually data for the 35 major cities in China from 2002 to 2012. Analysis results show that the productivity growth raises the housing prices, and the effect of the third industry is stronger than the second industry; the changes of industrial structure also raise the housing prices. Housing price rising is the inevitable result of the productivity growth and industrial structure changes, and the interventions, such as the accountability system for stable housing prices by the central government, are not in line with law of market. Government should focus on leading the industry and labor to the medium and small sized towns, and promote the balanced development of large cities and medium and small sized towns, for construction the long term mechanism of the housing market.