基于层次分析模糊综合评价法的

Bridge Fire Risk Assessment System Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

摘要:

基于火灾分析理论和火灾场景分析进行桥梁火灾风险识别，建立多层次桥梁火灾风险评估指标体系；将模糊数学引入层次分析方法，结合传统的定性分析方法和定量分析方法各自的优势，采用层次分析模糊综合评价法(AHPFCE)估计风险概率和风险损失.应用层次分析法（AHP）建立各指标权重，利用模糊综合评价法（FCE）进行多层次综合评判；根据风险概率和风险损失估计值及其等级标准，通过二维风险评价矩阵获得桥梁火灾风险水平并给出基本的风险控制准则.运用上述评估体系对某跨江大桥方案火灾安全风险进行了分析评估.

关键词:桥梁火灾安全; 层次分析法; 模糊综合评价法

Abstract:

Little attention is usually paid to the fire safety problem of bridge structures in the plan and design stage. This paper established a complete bridge fire risk assessment system to realize the assessment and prediction of the potential bridge fire risk in the plan and design stage. First, a multilayer risk evaluation index system of bridge fire safety was proposed by risk identification process based on performance based and fire scenario analysis. Then by innovatively introducing fuzzy mathematics into the analytic hierarchy process, the AHP FCE method was presented for evaluating the risk probability and risk loss, integrating the advantages of traditional quantitative evaluation method and qualitative evaluation method. The weighting coefficients of the indexes were calculated using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) while the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) was used to realize the multilayer comprehensive evaluation. Finally, the risk level of bridge fire safety was obtained by using the 2 dimension evaluation model based on the computed values of risk probability and risk loss and the evaluation criteria; and the basic risk control principles were given. As an example of engineering application, the fire risk level of a partially cable stayed bridge was assessed by using the proposed fire risk assessment system.

Key words:bridge fire safety; analytic hierarchy process (AHP); fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE)