海平面上升对沿海湿地的影响评估

Coastal Wetlands Impact Assessment of Sea Level Rise

摘要:

以美国佛罗里达州Hillsborough县为例，假设2010年～2100年海平面上升1m，考虑淹没、侵蚀、冲积、饱和、吸积等物理作用，运用海平面上升的湿地影响模型（SLAMM）进行用地的变化模拟计算，从面积和生态系统服务价值变化两方面评估海平面上升对湿地的影响。结果表明：（1）旱地面积将减少30.37km2；湿地面积增加30.37km2，其中河口开放水域、滩涂、盐沼、定期洪水沼泽面积大量增加，分别增加了394.29%、380.62%、141.93%、121.41%，季节性洪水沼泽、潮汐淡水沼泽、河流潮汐、河口沙滩、内陆海岸受海平面上升影响较大，分别减少了95.52%、91.31%、59.29%、37.59%、21.44%； 红树林 、内陆开放水域、一般沼泽、内陆淡水沼泽、柏树沼泽受影响较小，分别减少了6.67%、4.05%、2.35%、0.90%、0.10%。（2）尽管湿地总面积增加，但是由于河口沙滩和净水湿地的损失，生态系统服务价值呈现总体减少的趋势，从2010年的61 672万美元减少到2100年的61 548万美元，其中艺术娱乐、水调节、气候调节、文化精神价值将下降，水供应、栖息地保护、干扰调节和废物处理价值将上升。

Abstract:

Wetlands area change and ecosystem service value change for sea level rise are evaluated by using Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model. The area of Hillsborough County, Florida was taken as the case study, where the sea level is assumed to rise 1 meter from 2010 to 2100. Five affecting processes of inundation, erosion, overwash, saturation, accretion are included in the assessment model. The results show: (1) Dry lands area will decrease by 30.37km2, while wetlands area will increase by 30.37km2. Estuarine open water, beaches, salt marshes, regularly flooded marsh will increase by 394.29%, 380.62%, 141.93%, 121.41% respectively. Irregularly flooded marsh, tidal fresh marsh, tidal flats, estuarine beaches, inland shore will decrease by 95.52% , 91.31%, 59.29%, 37.59%, 21.44% respectively. Mangroves, inland open water, swamp, inland fresh marsh, cypress swamp will be less affected, which will decrease by 6.67%, 4.05%, 2.35%, 0.90 %, 0.10% respectively. (2) Although the total wetlands area will be increased, but the ecosystem services value will be reduced due to the loss of beach and freshwater wetlands, which will decrease from $ 616,720,000 in 2010 to $ 615,480,000 in 2100. The values of art and entertainment, water regulation, climate regulation, spiritual and cultural will be reduced, while values of water supply, habitat protection, disturbance regulation and waste disposal will enhanced.