轨道几何状态综合评价指标参数权重的敏感性分析

Weight Sensitivity Analysis of Parameters of Track Geometry Comprehensive Index

摘要:

为合理划分线路等级并配置有限的养护维修资源，融合现有几何状态检测数据源，提出一个轨道几何状态综合评价指标.运用层次分析法确定指标参数的初始权重，采用摄动法对该指标的参数权重进行敏感性分析，定量研究不同等级线路百分比与各参数权重变化的关系，并对初始权重进行修正.结果表明,轨道质量指数的权重变化对线路等级划分影响最为显著；轨道质量指数类和动检超限类权重范围应不小于0.2和不大于0.45，且内部权重分配比例分别为1∶1和3∶2；车载检查类权重应小于0.3，其中晃车仪权重应不小于0.1.

Abstract:

In order to reasonably classify the line grade and distribute limited resources of maintenance, fusing detection data sources of geometrical status which were obtained by existing means, the track geometry comprehensive index (TGCI) was proposed, the initial weights of parameters of TGCI were determined by AHP, and a weight sensitivity analysis for parameters of TGCI was conducted by using the perturbation method. The quantitative study on the relationship between changes in weights of parameters and percentage of different line grades, and initial weights were modified. The results show that changes in weights of TQI has the most significant effect on line grade classification. The weight range of TQI should be no less than 0.2, the weight range of data overrun of dynamic detection should be no more than 0.45, and the internal weight distribution ratio of each parameter is 1∶1 and 3∶2. The weight of vehicle detection should be less than 0.3, and the weight of locomotive shaking monitor meter should not be less than 0.1.