基于随机效应模型的交叉口事故碰撞类型建模

Modelling of Crash Types at Signalized Intersections Based on Random Effect Model

摘要:

考虑交叉口不同进口道之间的差异性，在进口道层面对不同碰撞类型事故分别建立随机效应模型，通过在负二项模型中引入随机效应项来考虑交叉口不同进口道之间的空间相关性.模型参数采用全贝叶斯方法进行估计.结果表明：不同碰撞类型事故的影响因素不同，且同一影响因素对不同碰撞类型事故的影响程度也存在显著差异，验证了区分碰撞类型进行事故建模的必要性.随机效应项在各模型中均显著，表明交叉口不同进口道之间事故频率存在显著的空间相关性.

Abstract:

Approachlevel models were developed to accommodate the diversity of approaches within the same intersection. A random effect term, which indicates the intersectionspecific effect, was incorporated into each crash type model to deal with the spatial correlation between different approaches within the same intersection. The model parameters were estimated under the Bayesian framework. Results show that different crash types are correlated with different groups of factors, and each factor shows diverse effects on different crash types, which indicates the importance of crash type models. Besides, the significance of random effect term confirms the existence of spatial correlations among different approaches within the same intersection.