基于贝叶斯网络模型的关键链项目进度管理

Critical Chain, Project Schedule Management Based on Bayesian Network Model

摘要:

在工程项目工作分解（WBS）和贝叶斯网络技术的基础上，考虑了WBS各单元之间的时序关系和资源约束条件，结合实例建立了关键链项目管理贝叶斯网络模型（CCPMBN）。提出了相应的各项资源需用计划，并通过蒙特卡洛仿真项目施工完成时间。结果表明关键链项目管理贝叶斯网络在项目进度延期的情况下能很好地识别影响工期的关键工序，CCPMBN模型为控制施工建设进度与实现提供了重要参考.

关键词:施工进度; 网络计划技术; 贝叶斯网络; 蒙特卡洛仿真

Abstract:

A critical chain project management bias network model (CCPMBN) based on work breakdown structure (WBS) and Bayesian Network was established, which took full consideration into the temporal relations and resource constraints. The corresponding resources were proposed and the deadline of the construction was determined by Monte Carlo Model. The result shows that, with the method, the critical factors influencing the deadline can be well recognized. The proposed model provides an important reference for realizing of the construction schedule.

Key words:construction progress; network planning technique; Bayesian Network; Monte Carlo Simulation