中国道路运输行业CO2和污染减排潜力情景分析

Scenario Analysis of CO2 and Pollutant Emission Mitigation Potential for China’s Road Transportation Sector

摘要:

为了评估中国交通道路运输行业减排潜力，基于长期能源替代规划系统（LEAP）建立了LEAPTran模型，并应用该模型模拟分析了两种不同情景下（基准情景和综合措施情景，后者包括组织管理措施、技术进步措施和能源结构升级措施三种子情景）中国道路运输行业2012~2030年CO2和其他大气污染物排放水平，通过估算减排贡献率识别了行业减排措施推广时间和重点部门.模拟结果表明，相对于基准情景，综合措施情景在2030年CO2，CO，NOx，PM10和HC（碳氢化合物）污染物排放分别减少39.6%，58.6%，91.5%，79.9%和83.9%.各子情景中，组织管理措施CO2和CO减排效果最佳，技术进步措施对其他污染物减排贡献度大，能源结构升级措施减排效果较小，但呈现增长势头.因此，道路运输行业具有巨大的减排潜力，近期减排主要通过组织管理措施和技术进步措施，如大力推广营运货车节能技术和制定更为严格的尾气排放标准.

关键词:CO2排放; 污染物排放; 长期能源替代规划系统; 道路运输行业; 情景分析

Abstract:

In order to assess the emission reduction potential in road transportation sector in China, a LEAPTran model based on long range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP) was developed. With the model, 2 scenarios of CO2 and pollutant emissions in China’s transport sector from 2012 to 2030, Business as Usual (BAU) scenario and Comprehensive Measure (CM) scenario, which included three available emission reduction subscenarios, namely organizationalmanagement (OM) subscenario, technologicalprogress (TP) subscenario and energeticstructure promotion (EP) subscenario, were first simulated. Then, the energy consumption up to 2030 was estimated in these five scenarios. Based on the emission reduction contribution rates of each scenario, the promotion schedule of emission reduction measures and key emission reduction sectors were identified. The simulation results show that the emissions of CO2, CO, NOx, PM10 and HC in 2030 in the CM scenario are respectively 39.6%, 58.6%, 91.5%, 79.9% and 83.9% lower than those in the BAU scenario. In the subscenarios, OM is the most effective measure for reducing CO2 and CO emissions, while TP is the most effective measure for reducing NOx, PM10 and HC emissions. EP has a smaller effect in reducing emissions, but it shows a rapid growth and may play an important role in the future. In conclusion, There is a great potential for reduction in road transportation sector in China. In order to achieve the shortterm emission reduction targets, Chinese government should implement OM and TP measures, such as the promotion of transportation energysaving technologies and development of the more strict emission standard.

Key words:CO2 emission; pollutant emission; longrange energy alternatives planning syhstem(LEAP); road transportation sector; scenario analysis