现有洪水中人体失稳标准的评价及改进

Evaluation and Further Improvement of Existing Criteria for Human Stability in Floodwaters

摘要:

近年来城市洪涝灾害频繁发生，导致人员伤亡严重，因此研究洪水中人体失稳标准可为城市洪水风险管理提供科学参考.全面总结了已有洪水中人体失稳的试验研究及力学理论分析成果，表明现有基于水槽试验的洪水中人体失稳标准大多数不考虑失稳机理，而部分理论分析结果通常忽略人体所受浮力并且假定来流沿水深为均匀分布，与实际情况不符.当前较新研究成果尽管克服了上述不足，但忽略欧美人体结构与中国人体的差异，所以还需进一步完善.故有必要对洪水中人体的失稳标准进行改进.采用欧美人体结构的特征参数，修正了洪水中人体所受浮力的计算公式.利用已有洪水中真实人体失稳的水槽试验数据重新率定了人体起动流速公式中的相关参数，提出了改进后的洪水中人体失稳标准，并用城市洪水的实测资料对其进行验证.由于参数率定时采用水槽试验数据，其试验条件比真实洪水过程简单，故所提出的洪水中人体失稳标准偏于危险.

Abstract:

There have been numerous urban flood disasters in recent years, causing considerable loss of life. Therefore, the current investigation can provide a scientific basis for flood risk management for people living in urban areas. This paper reviewed previous investigations into human stability in floodwaters. Most of the existing criteria are empirical; other theoretical analyses usually neglect the effects of body buoyance and nonuniform velocity profile of incoming flow, which does not agree with real situations. Although the latest research results have overcome those deficiencies, further improvement is still required because the adopted approach neglects the difference of body structure attributes between the European and Chinese people. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the criterion of human body stability in floodwaters. This paper modified the existing equation of buoyancy force with the parameters of human body structure of Americans or Europeans. Two parameters in the formulas of incipient velocity were recalibrated based on existing experimental data and an improved criterion for the stability of children and adults in floodwaters was presented. Finally, the proposed formula was validated in detail against existing field experimental data. Because the control conditions for the laboratory experiments were better than those in real floodwaters, the criterion for human stability proposed in this paper tends to be more dangerous in terms of flood risk management.