汽车产业创新生态系统仿真与影响因素分析

Simulation and Influencing Factors Analysis of Automotive Industry Innovation Ecosystem

摘要:

基于创新生态系统和系统动力学理论，构建汽车产业创新生态系统模型，运用Vensim PLE软件进行优化仿真分析，以上海汽车产业为例，探析政府引导、研发支出、产业投入等变量在一定幅度内不同作用水平情况下汽车产业创新生态系统发展趋势.研究发现，三项指标作用强度依次为研发支出比重、产业投入比重、政府引导系数；产业发展初期，随着政府引导增减产业发展变化较为敏感，过度的政策引导会产生负面影响；随着市场机制的逐渐完善，治理要素的影响作用逐渐减弱.

Abstract:

Based on the theory of innovation ecosystem and system dynamics, this paper constructs the model of automotive industry innovation ecosystem. Using the Vensim PLE to optimize the model, with Shanghai automotive industry for example, this paper analyzes the development trend of automotive industry innovation ecosystem, under the different level of government guidance, research and development spending, and industrial investment within a certain range. The results show that: the rank of effects of three indicators from strong to weak is research and development spending, industrial investment, and government guidance. In the early stage of industry development, the industry added value was sensitive with the change of government guidance, but excessive government guidance would cause negative impact. With the improvement of market mechanism, the effect of governance factors will be weak gradually.