海平面上升对长江口波浪影响的预测与分析

Prediction and Analysis of the Impacts on Wave in the Yangtze River Estuary due to Potential Sea Level Rise

摘要:

基于MIKE 21 SW建立了长江口波浪数学模型，采用实测资料对波浪模型进行了验证，分别模拟当前海平面和海平面上升0.5，1.0，1.5 m情景下的不同风向下的波浪分布，比较分析了波浪随海平面上升的变化特征，长江口波浪随海平面上升的一般特征为：波高和周期变化过程与潮位变化过程一致，波高增量高水位时大于低水位；口内波高增量明显小于口外，滩地增量最大，滩地迎风向的波高增量比背风向大；波周期变化特征与有效波高相似，但变幅明显小于波高变幅.

Abstract:

A numerical wave model of the Yangtze River Estuary (YRE) was established based on MIKE 21 SW and validated with field wave measurements. After the validation, the model was applied to simulate three scenarios of different sea level rises (0.5, 1.0, 1.5m). The general changing features of wave due to sea level rise in the YRE can be summarized: the time history of wave height and wave period agree with that of tidal level, and the increase of wave height at high water level is larger than that at low water level; wave height increase inside the entrance is less than that out of the entrance, and shoals are places with the biggest impact where increased wave height on the windward side is larger than that on the leeward side; the impact of sea level rise on wave period is similar to that of wave height, but is less affected.