基于失效模式与后果分析改进的投标策略风险分析

Improved Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Approach to Risk Analysis of Bidding Strategy

摘要:

针对投标策略的风险分析中缺乏有效量化方法的问题，提出了基于模糊集理论和灰色关联理论的改进FMEA（失效模式与效果分析）方法.结合模糊集理论建立评价失效模式的模糊语言术语集和对应的模糊数，并由FMEA小组对各种失效模式做出评价.利用灰色关联理论计算各种失效模式的关联度，通过排序来确定失效模式的风险顺序.投标策略的风险分析案例说明了该研究具有适用性和有效性.

Abstract:

The improved failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) based on the fuzzy set theory and gray relational theory was proposed for the solution to effective quantization questions of risk analysis in bidding strategy. First of all, combining with the fuzzy set theory, the fuzzy linguistic terminology set of the failure mode and corresponding fuzzy numbers were established, and the different failure modes were evaluated by the FMEA team. Next, the relevance ratio of different failure modes was calculated using the gray relation theory and the risk order of failure modes was confirmed by sorting. Risk analysis cases of biding strategy illustrate the usability and effectiveness of the proposed approad.