制度变迁视角下重大基础设施投融资模式演进

Evolutionary Analysis of Mega Infrastructure Investment and Finance Scheme in China from the Perspective of Institutional Transition

摘要:

针对重大基础设施投融资制度变迁及模式演进问题，在分析相关制度发展阶段的基础上，应用演化博弈理论，构建政府市场二元重大基础设施投融资演化博弈模型.结合系统仿真技术，分析了政府决策水平、市场投资意愿、市场投资额度、重大基础设施投资收益率和风险损失的变化，对政府、市场的演化稳定策略和双方的混合策略的影响.研究发现,政府的政策制度和决策水平与市场投资意愿之间存在反馈作用，且它们与市场投资能力、重大基础设施投资收益和风险等因素一起影响投融资模式的演进，演进路径的决定性因素是制度变迁路径的选择.

关键词:重大基础设施; 投融资模式; 演进; 演化博弈; 仿真

Abstract:

Focused on the institutional transition and scheme evolution of mega infrastructure investment and finance, the phases of relevant institution were analyzed. A governmentmarket dual evolutionary game model on mega infrastructure investment and finance was built. Then, the decisionmaking level of the government, investment willingness and investment amount, the yield and risk of mega infrastructure investment on the evolutionary stable strategy of both agents and their mixed strategy combining system simulation technology were studied. Finally, the feedback mechanism between policy, institution, decisionmaking level of government and investment willingness were discovered. The two parameters together with the investment ability of the government, the yield and risk of mega infrastructure investment have a great impact on the investment and finance scheme. The evolution path is determined by the institution transition route.

Key words:mega infrastructure; investment and finance scheme; evolution; evolutionary game; simulation