基于风险收益平衡的驾驶员停止/通过决策行为

Modeling of Drivers’ Stop/Go Decision Behavior Based on Tradeoff of Risk and Benefit

摘要:

通过在上海市6个信号控制交叉口采集的数据，基于风险平衡理论和随机效用理论，建立了驾驶员停止/通过决策行为模型.研究表明，驾驶员停止/通过决策行为受红灯时长的影响显著，并具有在交通冲突风险和时间收益之间的博弈特征.小汽车驾驶员在距离交叉口时间和等待红灯时间之间的权衡比重约为180∶1；大型车辆驾驶员比小型车辆驾驶员的停止/通过行为更加激进，市区比郊区的停止/通过行为更加激进；激进的驾驶行为会显著增加严重交通冲突发生的概率.

关键词:信号控制交叉口; 停止/通过行为; 相位切换; 风险平衡理论; 随机效用理论

Abstract:

Based on the empirical data collected at six signalized intersections in Shanghai, a drivers’ stop/go decision behavior model was developed by using the risk homeostasis theory (RHT) and the utility theory (UT). The study shows that the drivers’ stop/go decision behavior is significantly affected by the time of the red light and is tradeoff between traffic conflict risk and time saving benefit. The ratio of timetointersection (TTI) and waiting time of red light (R) of passenger car drivers is approximately 180∶1. Truck drivers are more aggressive on stop/go behavior than passenger car drivers, while drivers in urban district are more aggressive than drivers in suburban district. Moreover, the probability of severe traffic conflict is significantly increased by aggressive driving behavior.

Key words:signalized intersections; stop/go behavior; phase transition; risk homeostasis theory; utility theory