基于投入产出模型的生产流程能耗敏感性分析

Sensitivity Analysis of Energy Consumption in Industrial Production Processes Based on Inputoutput Model

摘要:

通过纳入副产品流向和流量，使拓展后的企业投入产出模型能够更全面地反映生产流程中各种物质流和能流的相互作用，也能更准确求出各产品的能值和总能耗.在此基础上，结合敏感性分析，建立了最终需求量和技术系数两类因素变化对总能耗影响的数学关系，从而找到工业生产流程中影响能耗最关键的因素.计算分析湘钢的产品能值和总能耗结果表明：总能耗的90%以上来源于化石燃料，而不足10%来源于外购物料的上游能耗；副产品回收利用能减少62.5%的总能耗；焦炉对洗精煤的单耗、高炉焦比、1#转炉的铁水单耗、含铁物流的利用效率和高炉的技术优化（烧结矿单耗和煤气产率）对能耗影响最为显著.

Abstract:

By adding the production, usage, export and loss of byproducts flows, an improved enterprise inputoutput model was proposed first, which could fully reflect the interactions of material and energy flows and more accurately calculate the products’ embodied energy and total energy consumption. Then, the sensitivity analysis based on the developed inputoutput model was established to calculate the influences of final demand and technical coefficients on the total energy consumption. It helps to identify the key coefficients on the energy consumption. The products’ embodied energy and total energy consumption of Xiangtan Steel Plant was obtained and analyzed. The results show that more than 90% of the total energy consumption is from fossil fuel while the upstream energy consumption of the purchased raw materials contributes to less than 10%; the byproducts utilizations could reduce the total energy consumption by 62.5%; the specific consumption of the washed coal in coke oven, the coke ratio of blast furnace (BF), the specific consumption of hot metal in 1# basic oxygen furnace, the yield rate of ironcontaining products and the technology improvement of BF (e.g. specific consumption of sinter and gas production rate) are the most important coefficients for the change of energy consumption.