基于车辆轨迹数据的交叉口危险驾驶行为预测

Prediction of Driver’s Risky Behaviors Based on Vehicle Trajectory Data at Signalized Intersections

摘要:

基于大量实证车辆轨迹数据建立了信号控制交叉口相位切换期间轨迹预测模型和驾驶员心理决策过程预测模型，并在两个模型的基础上建立了驾驶员危险行为识别的规则，三者共同构成了驾驶员危险行为预测方法.经检验，预测方法的整体精度达到88.89%.该预测方法将驾驶员临近交叉口时的隐藏心理决策过程作为一个重要变量运用到危险行为预测方法中,并实现了对车辆个体动态化的轨迹预测.

Abstract:

A trajectory prediction model and a driver’s hidden decisionmaking process prediction model were established based on the collection and analysis of vehicle trajectory data at intersection influenced areas. Moreover, based on these two models, the rules for recognizing driver’s risky behaviors were built. The three together constitute the overall driver’s risky behaviors prediction method at signalized intersections. It is found that the overall accuracy of this prediction method is 88.89%. This prediction method realizes vehicle’s individual dynamic trajectory prediction, utilizing driver’s hidden decisionmaking process as an important variable in prediction of driver’s risky behaviors.