大型机场航站楼的建造总工期估算

Estimating Construction Duration for Airport Terminal Megaprojects

摘要:

从对国内10多个大型机场的进度总控咨询成果数据分析（2000—2016年），提出基于总控工序的航站楼总工期估算模型.确定航站楼典型关键线路的总控工序顺序，并拟合出工序间的未搭接时间分布.在对4条可能关键线路进行工期分布拟合的基础上，提出建造总工期的估算模型，并应用到3个已完工航站楼的案例中，验证了估算方法的可靠性.通过引入总控工序的工期估算模型，简化了应用传统风险计划方法评估大型工程工期的繁复工作.

Abstract:

A controllingactivity based model was proposed to estimate the construction duration of terminal megaprojects from the consulting achievements of project timecontrolling for more than ten airport megaprojects in China (2000—2016). First, typical construction sequences of controlling activities for each possible critical path were determined, and the distributions of nonoverlapping time between controlling activities were fitted. After that, based on fitting the duration distributions of four possible critical paths, a model for predicting the duration of terminal building was proposed and applied to three completed terminals. The results show that the proposed model reasonably predicts the construction duration for the case projects. Compared to traditional risk planning methods, the model proposed simplifies the complex work.