结合台风模拟的混合气候下分风向极值风速估计方法

ESTIMATING DIRECTIONAL EXTREME WIND SPEEDS IN MIXED CLIMATES COMBINED WITH TYPHOON

摘要:

本文采用Monte Carlo方法分别获取台风和良态风气候的极值风速样本。其中,台风气候极值风速采用Yan Meng 台风模型进行模拟,而良态风气候则是对气象站风速数据拟合极值分布后再模拟一定数量的极值数据,然后对两者进行组合。最后,结合风速风向分布模型提出一种考虑风向的极值风速估计方法。利用本文方法对上海地区极值风速设计值进行了估算,并讨论了该方法的特性。其模拟结果不仅同时展现台风和良态风两种气候的极值分布形态,还表明了受台风影响的地区各个风向上极值风速具有一定程度的相关性。

Abstract:

At present, the available wind observation data for estimation of directional extreme wind speeds is lacking, especially the data of tropical cyclones. Up to the present, there is still no method can provide directional extreme wind speed estimates in mixed climates. In this paper, the samples of extreme wind speeds in typhoon climate and normal climate are separately obtained using the Monte Carlo method. For the typhoon climate, the samples of extreme wind speeds are simulated by the typhoon wind field model established by Yan Meng. For the normal climate, the samples of extreme wind speeds are simulated by the distribution function fitted from the wind observation data. Then, a new method of estimating the directional extreme wind speeds is proposed. The results of estimated extreme wind speeds are presented and discussed using Shanghai as an example. The results demonstrate the distribution of extreme wind speeds in those two kinds of climates and the reasonable transition between these climates. The strong correlation among the extreme wind speeds in different directions is also shown in the mixed climate.