供需匹配的铁路网趋稳模型

Stabilization Model of Railway Network Based on Supply and Demand Matching

摘要:

从铁路运输供需匹配的角度出发，选择合理的铁路网供给和需求参数，基于趋于平衡的主要发达国家的铁路供需情况，运用多变量生产函数模型，建立基于供需匹配的铁路网趋稳模型及其修订模型，通过相关参数的合理假设，测算得出我国铁路网趋稳营业里程约为2.8×10⁵km，研究表明，在较大地域范围内该方法的预测精度较高.

Abstract:

From the perspective of railway transportation supplydemand matching, the multi-variable production function model was adopted with the reasonable supply and demand parameters corresponding to the railway network. Referred to the current stabilization status of railway network in the developed countries, the stable model of the railway network was proposed with its revision. On account of the reasonable hypothesis, the stabilization scale of railway network for our whole country, about 0.28 million kilometer, is estimated when we are in high developed countries, which provides a valuable reference for our construction of railway. The scale result is discussed subsequently, which shows that the prediction accuracy of this method is higher in a large geographical area.