基于出行链的城际旅客出行方式选择行为

Intercity Passenger Travel Mode Choice Behavior Based on Trip Chain

摘要:

在解析城际出行链的基础上，分析了旅客出行方式选择的影响因素，并将心理潜变量引入Logit模型，构建了基于出行链的旅客城际出行方式选择模型(stuctural equation modelingLogit, SEMLogit).通过对沪杭交通走廊内客流的调查，进行了模型的应用及参数标定，并对城际旅客出行链的选择进行了预测，拟合值与调查值的相对误差在2%以内.结果表明，考虑了心理潜变量的改进模型具有良好解释能力，能直观地反应和预测旅客在城际出行中对出行方式的选择行为.

Abstract:

Based on the analysis of intercity travel links, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of passenger travel choice and introduces the psychological latent variables into the Logit model, and builds the SEMLogit model of passenger intercity travel choice based on travel chain. Through the investigation of the passenger flow in the ShanghaiHangzhou transport corridor, the application of the model and the parameter calibration are carried out, and the choice of intercity passenger travel chain is predicted with the relative error of less than 2%. The results show that the improved model that takes into account the psychological latent variables has a good explanatory power and can intuitively reflect and predict the traveler’s choice of travel modes in intercity travelling.