基于数据包络分析和托宾模型的城市轨道交通运输效率

An Empirical Study of Transport Efficiency of Urban Rail Transit Based on Data Envelopment Analysis and Tobit Model

摘要:

基于数据包络分析（DEA）和托宾模型（Tobit）两阶段法对中国城市轨道交通的运输效率进行评价，并对其影响因素进行分析.研究采用20个城市的2015年数据.研究结果表明,我国城市轨道交通运输整体效率较低；新开通线路的二、三线城市的纯技术效率较高，但规模效率较低；大多数城市的轨道交通都处于规模收益递增阶段.城市轨道交通的运输效率与路网密度、换乘车站数量和车站数量等因素有关，其中路网密度对运输效率的影响程度较大.

关键词:城市轨道交通; 运输效率; 数据包络分析; 托宾模型

Abstract:

This paper constructs a data envelopment analysis (DEA) model to analyze the transport efficiency urban rail transit of 20 cities in China by using the data of 2015, and then uses the Tobit regression model to evaluate the correlation between the transport efficiency and various factors. The results show that the overall efficiency of urban rail transit in China is low. The pure technical efficiencies of the cities that began to operate urban rail transit systems in last three years are higher, while their scale efficiencies are lower. The rail transit systems in most cities are in the increasing stage of scale revenue. The transport efficiency of urban rail transit is related to the density of railway network, quantities of stations, and transfer stations. The density of railway network has more influence on transport efficiency.

Key words:urban rail transit; transport efficiency; data envelopment analysis; Tobit model