基于Nested Logit的电动汽车分时租赁选择行为分析

Analysis of Choices of Electric Car Sharing Based on Nested Logit Model

摘要:

基于用户出行选择调查问卷的样本数据，应用Nested Logit离散选择模型进行回归分析，探究影响用户出行选择的因素，并计算出各种出行方式的分担率及其敏感度。结果表明：使用成本、站点距离、出行里程、驾龄、用户拥有私家车情况以及年龄等因素对用户是否选择电动汽车分时租赁有显著影响；当前电动汽车分时租赁在出行领域的显示性编好(revealed preference，RP)调查分担率为2.36%，使用成本对其敏感度为8.6%，站点距离对其敏感度为43.7%；陈术性编好(stated preference，SP)调查分担率为3.30%，使用成本对其敏感度为8.9%，站点距离对其敏感度为21.1%。

关键词:电动汽车分时租赁; 出行选择行为; Nested Logit模型; 显示性偏好; 陈述性偏好

Abstract:

The Nested Logit Model was used to analyze the questionnaire investigation based on users’ travel modes choices. The factors influencing on users’ travel modes choices were researched. Users’ selection probability and sensitivity of travel modes were computed. The results show that cost, station distance, trip distance, driving-age, ownership of private cars and users’ age make a difference on selection probability of electric car sharing. Selection probability of electric car sharing based on RP(revealed preference) data is 2.36% while based on SP(stated preference) data is 3.30%. If cost of electric car sharing increase 1 yuan/kilometer, based on RP data selection probability of electric car sharing will decrease by 8.6% while based on SP data decrease by 8.9%. If station distance of electric car sharing increase 1 kilometer, based on RP data selection probability of electric car sharing will decrease by 43.7% while based on SP data decrease by 21.1%.

Key words:electric car sharing; analysis of travel modes choices; Nested Logit Model; revealed preference(RP); stated preference(SP)