暴雨内涝下公交乘客的出行选择行为

Travel Choice Behavior of Transit Passengers in the Storm Weather with Road Waterlogging

摘要:

基于暴雨内涝天气对公交线路运行影响强弱的三种情形，通过实际调查（RP）和意向调查（SP）的调查结果进行效用模型估计和决策变量的敏感性分析，解析暴雨内涝下公交乘客的出行选择行为机理，得到公交乘客出行选择行为的影响因素（由强至弱）是步行时间、票价、车内时间和车内拥挤程度，以及所选出行方式的主要特点（由强至弱）是零换乘、低票价、中途易更改出行意愿和运行稳定.最后根据上述结果，从调度指挥、对信息服务、交管保障三个方面进行了暴雨内涝天气下公交应急预案的探讨.

Abstract:

Derived from revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) survey results for the transit passengers, this paper developed the travel choice behavior model considering the effects on bus route operation under three types of storm waterlogging scenarios. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to evaluate the critical factors for transit passengers in choosing their travel modes, which include walk time, transit fare, in-bus congestion degree, and in-bus travel time (from high to low). And, the main features of the selected travel modes are zero transfer, low fare, easy to change traveling intention and stable operation (from high to low). These finding could have implications for developing bus emergency management plan and serve as references for public transit agency regarding bus dispatching, information announcement and traffic safeguard.