基于事故率的城市供水管网全寿命运行可靠性

Accident Rate-Based Lifecycle Operational Reliability of Urban Water DistributionNetworks

摘要:

利用不同管材的事故率模型、不同事故的模拟模型和基于Langelier的管道粗糙度时变模型建立了城市供水管网全寿命运行可靠性分析方法.通过敏感性分析，建议了模型中关键参数的取值.对某市供水管网进行了50年的运行可靠性模拟，根据分析结果指出了薄弱区域，并给出了管网改造措施.

关键词:供水管网; 运行可靠性; 全寿命; 事故率; 管道粗糙度

Abstract:

An accident rate-based lifecycle operational reliability analysis approach of urban water distribution networks was proposed using the accident rate models for different pipe materials, the simulation models for different accidents, and the Langelier-based pipeline roughness model. The values of some key parameters were suggested by sensitivity analysis. Then, the operational reliability analysis of a case network was performed, by which the weak areas were determined and the network improvement measures were introduced.

Key words:water distribution networks; operational reliability; lifecycle; accident rate; pipe roughness